Who says the Academy knows best?

We will see the return of Hollywood’s biggest night with the Oscars on March 4th. After what will go down as one of the most controversial years in the industry’s long history, it’s time to honor, once again, the films which remind us of the of the positive, immersive and thought-provoking experiences brought upon by film. This year the Academy has selected a strong and surprisingly diverse pool of nominees, and a we could see a few surprises. Could a dark comedy win Best Picture? Will an acting legend finally win cinema’s most famous statuette? Here’s how I think the big six categories will play out.

Best Picture

Will Win: “The Shape of Water”

This award season has switched front runner so often that flipping a coin may be the best way of making a prediction. One week “Three Billboards” will win the Golden Globe for Best Drama, and the next “The Shape of Water” will take Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. While this year it can go either way, it’d be reasonable to assume the conservative Academy would pass on a pitch black comedy like “Three Billboards.” Also with an astounding 13 nominations, the Academy has not so quietly revealed the likely favorite.

Should Win: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

While Martin McDonagh’s ambitious examination of human cruelty might be a little too controversial for Academy voters to award, it surpasses its competition in almost all categories. The near perfect balance of humor and tragedy is the result of a fresh script which takes risks, backed up by powerful cast who effortlessly disappear into their roles.

Best Leading Actor

Will Win: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Oldman’s performance has received nearly unanimous recognition this year. Historical biopics have always been a favorite genre for the Academy to recognize. Apart from the brilliance of Oldman’s portrayal, the Academy will likely use this year as an opportunity to recognize his long and illustrious film career which had rarely been recognized previously.

Should Win: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Fortunately for the former Dracula, the contenders for this category this year aren’t as strong as previous year. The only reasonable threat is Timothée Chalamet, who is too young for most Academy voters to consider. Even without this factor, Oldman’s biographic portrayal has stood out from all other performances of the year. The 59-year-old electrifies the screen while disappearing into one of England’s most prolific figures.

Best Leading Actress

Will Win: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Similar to Oldman, McDormand has practically swept all the major awards this season. Her performance as a grieving mother leading the charge against an unhelpful police force has captivated critics and regular movie goers alike on an almost universal scale. This accomplishment has been reflected with top honors from The Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice Awards, all of which are consistent early indicators.  

Should Win: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Once again, all this praise is for a reason. She expertly brings to life a seemingly off-putting figure with a sympathetic ferocity. This is thanks to a deep understanding of the character only possible with an actor as seasoned as McDormand.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Rockwell has quietly established himself as one of the most underrated character actors of his generation. His performance as the dopey racist police officer, while often unpleasant to watch, is exceptionally entertaining. His complete immersion has been recognized with most of Hollywood’s highest accolades in the supporting actor category, including a victory at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Should Win: Willem DaFoe, “The Florida Project”

DaFoe has a strong chance of pulling off an upset. Backlash, often focused on the reconciliation of Rockwell’s controversial character, has heavily cast a shadow over “Three Billboards” nominations. DaFoe has been passed over by the Academy twice previously, and his three-dimensional portrayal of an empathetic hotel manager may be enough to break his losing streak.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

After a very successful track record at the Primetime Emmys, Janney looks poised to take home another gold statue with her first nomination for the Oscars. Her performance as Tonya Harding’s abusive mother has been repeatedly triumphant on a Frances McDormand level. It’s safe to say this category is a lock for the former sitcom star.

Should Win: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

When examining which former television actress brought more to their role of an antagonizing mother, Laurie Metcalf is superior. Metcalf manages to be more convincing with an arguably more difficult role. She demands sympathy as a passive aggressive psychiatric nurse working double time shifts to provide for her family. Unfortunately, her talent has gone mostly unrewarded this season, and its highly unlikely things would change on the big night.      

Best Director

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Del Toro has done an outstanding job creating the world and characters of his latest film. His achievements have been praised repeatedly this award season, winning at The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. As impressive as these are, Del Toro secured his spot as front runner thanks to his victory at the Director’s Guild of America, an honor which has been given to 21 of the last 25 recipients of the Academy Award.

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”

Nolan also has a strong chance at grabbing the golden statue. The technical accomplishments of “Dunkirk” cannot be understated. The challenges of directing hundreds of people at any time as well as filming in water and in the skies would be overwhelming to anyone less talented. Of course, Nolan’s choice to film on 70mm film further complicated every aspect of the filmmaking process. Accounting for all of this, Nolan deserves to be awarded for the incredible execution of the World War II film.